Cassandra · Pre-Recall Predictor

Recall Risk Radar

Products, vehicles, drugs and devices showing sharply rising complaint velocity — a leading indicator of recall risk, often weeks before any official action. Built on public CPSC, openFDA and NHTSA complaint data.

25entities tracked
0elevated risk
2confirmed predictions
18davg lead time
Get the feed / API → JSON
What this is — and isn't. Cassandra is a risk-triage signal computed from the velocity and acceleration of public complaint reports. It does not assert any product is defective, and a high score is not an official recall. It means complaint volume is rising fast — here is the data and the sources so you can decide. Always verify on the official agency notice.

How good is the signal? (We tell you, honestly.)

We backtested complaint-velocity against official recalls. Here is exactly how calibrated it is — including how often it's wrong. Sold as risk-triage, never as a prediction.

2.2×NHTSA: an ELEVATED flag's lift over baseline likelihood of preceding a recall
~95dmedian lead time when a flag does precede a recall
30–37%precision: share of ELEVATED flags later recalled
63–70%false-positive rate: flags that do NOT recall
Read this before you act on a flag. Most ELEVATED flags do not end in a recall — that is expected and disclosed. The value is triage: a flagged item is ~2.2× more worth your reviewer's time than a random one, ~3 months before the official notice. Use it to prioritise QA / underwriting / stock decisions — not to declare a product defective. openFDA device/drug velocity is shown as a corroborating early-warning signal but is not independently backtested here.

Top rising recall-risk signals

Ranked by complaint-velocity risk score. Last computed: 2026-11-03 07:21 UTC.

#EntityBandRiskVel /wkvs baseAccel /wkSevere30d
1 Toyota RAV4 (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ UNKNOWN OR OTHER (27%)
 WATCH 63 1.87 3.43× 1.4 10% 8
2 Tesla Cybertruck (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ STRUCTURE (25%)
 WATCH 52 1.4 2× 0.7 22% 6
3 Honda CR-V (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ SERVICE BRAKES (38%)
 BASELINE 16 0.93 0.86× -0.23 22% 4
4 Kia EV6 (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (75%)
 BASELINE 16 0.7 1.29× 0.23 0% 3
5 Tesla Model 3 (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ SUSPENSION (17%)
 BASELINE 12 0.7 0.75× -0.7 22% 3
6 Jeep Grand Cherokee (2022)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (40%)
 BASELINE 12 1.17 0.88× -0.23 9% 5
7 Chevrolet Blazer EV (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ SERVICE BRAKES (33%)
 BASELINE 11 0.47 1.2× 0.47 0% 2
8 Tesla Model Y (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (22%)
 BASELINE 10 2.33 0.68× -0.7 13% 10
9 Beta Bionics iLet
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 10 0 0× -1119.07 23% 0
10 Ford Mustang Mach-E (2021)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ FORWARD COLLISION AVOIDANCE (100%)
 BASELINE 9 0.47 1.2× 0 0% 2
11 Toyota RAV4 (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ VISIBILITY (50%)
 BASELINE 4 0.47 0.5× -0.7 0% 2
12 Tandem t:slim X2 Pump
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 4 0 0× -3085.37 10% 0
13 Ford Mustang Mach-E (2022)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (50%)
 BASELINE 2 0.23 0.75× -0.23 0% 1
14 Dexcom G7 CGM
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 1 0 0× -3489.97 3% 0
15 Ford F-350 Crew Cab (2021)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
 BASELINE 0 0 0× -0.47 0% 0
16 Chevrolet Bolt EV (2022)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
 BASELINE 0 0 0× 0 0% 0
17 Honda Prologue (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa
 BASELINE 0 — — — — —
18 Medtronic MiniMed 780G
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 0 0 0× -860.07 0% 0
19 Philips DreamStation CPAP
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 0 0 0× -86.57 0% 0
20 Ozempic (semaglutide)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 0 0× -255.97 0% 0
21 Wegovy (semaglutide)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 0 0× -326.2 0% 0
22 Mounjaro (tirzepatide)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 0 0× -366.8 0% 0
23 Humira (adalimumab)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 — — — — —
24 Eliquis (apixaban)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 — — — — —
25 Ford F-150 Lightning (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa
 BASELINE 0 — — — — —

Sources: CPSC SaferProducts · openFDA (drug & device adverse events) · NHTSA complaints.

Track record — the credibility flywheel

Every flagged entity is cross-checked daily against real CPSC / FDA / NHTSA recall feeds. When a flagged product is later recalled, we publish the lead time.

  • Tesla Model 3 (2023) — flagged 2026-07-01 (score 73), recalled 2026-08-05 → 35 days lead. notice
  • Kia EV6 (2023) — flagged 2026-07-02 (score 56), recalled 2026-07-02 → 0 days lead. notice

Get alerted before the recall

Free weekly digest of the top rising-risk products. Retailers, insurers and class-action firms — see the paid feed/API/webhook tiers.