Cassandra · Pre-Recall Predictor

Recall Risk Radar

Products, vehicles, drugs and devices showing sharply rising complaint velocity — a leading indicator of recall risk, often weeks before any official action. Built on public CPSC, openFDA and NHTSA complaint data.

25entities tracked
0elevated risk
1confirmed predictions
0davg lead time
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What this is — and isn't. Cassandra is a risk-triage signal computed from the velocity and acceleration of public complaint reports. It does not assert any product is defective, and a high score is not an official recall. It means complaint volume is rising fast — here is the data and the sources so you can decide. Always verify on the official agency notice.

How good is the signal? (We tell you, honestly.)

We backtested complaint-velocity against official recalls. Here is exactly how calibrated it is — including how often it's wrong. Sold as risk-triage, never as a prediction.

2.2×NHTSA: an ELEVATED flag's lift over baseline likelihood of preceding a recall
~95dmedian lead time when a flag does precede a recall
30–37%precision: share of ELEVATED flags later recalled
63–70%false-positive rate: flags that do NOT recall
Read this before you act on a flag. Most ELEVATED flags do not end in a recall — that is expected and disclosed. The value is triage: a flagged item is ~2.2× more worth your reviewer's time than a random one, ~3 months before the official notice. Use it to prioritise QA / underwriting / stock decisions — not to declare a product defective. openFDA device/drug velocity is shown as a corroborating early-warning signal but is not independently backtested here.

Top rising recall-risk signals

Ranked by complaint-velocity risk score. Last computed: 2026-08-05 07:22 UTC.

#EntityBandRiskVel /wkvs baseAccel /wkSevere30d
1 Chevrolet Bolt EV (2022)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (100%)
 LOW 34 0.23 3× 0 0% 1
2 Chevrolet Blazer EV (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ FORWARD COLLISION AVOIDANCE (40%)
 LOW 32 0.7 1.5× -0.47 38% 3
3 Kia EV6 (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (57%)
 LOW 29 0.93 1.71× 0.23 0% 4
4 Tesla Model 3 (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ STRUCTURE (100%)
 LOW 18 0.23 0.17× -2.33 42% 1
5 Ford Mustang Mach-E (2022)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (17%)
 BASELINE 17 0.47 0.55× 0.23 67% 2
6 Tesla Model Y (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ SUSPENSION (19%)
 BASELINE 17 3.97 1.19× 0 18% 17
7 Tesla Cybertruck (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ POWER TRAIN (17%)
 BASELINE 16 0.93 0.86× 0.23 29% 4
8 Mounjaro (tirzepatide)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 16 0 0× -365.4 54% 0
9 Honda CR-V (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ STEERING (60%)
 BASELINE 14 0.93 0.38× -0.47 10% 4
10 Toyota RAV4 (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ BACK OVER PREVENTION (33%)
 BASELINE 10 0.7 0.69× -0.23 14% 3
11 Toyota RAV4 (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (33%)
 BASELINE 10 0.7 0.45× -0.47 13% 3
12 Beta Bionics iLet
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 10 0 0× -793.1 23% 0
13 Jeep Grand Cherokee (2022)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (32%)
 BASELINE 6 1.87 0.83× 0 0% 8
14 Honda Prologue (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ STEERING (27%)
 BASELINE 6 5.83 0.44× -1.87 2% 25
15 Tandem t:slim X2 Pump
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 5 0 0× -2811.9 10% 0
16 Ford F-350 Crew Cab (2021)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ FUEL/PROPULSION SYSTEM (33%)
 BASELINE 3 0.47 1× 0 0% 2
17 Ford Mustang Mach-E (2021)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (20%)
 BASELINE 2 0.47 0.55× -1.4 0% 2
18 Dexcom G7 CGM
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 0 — — — — —
19 Medtronic MiniMed 780G
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 0 0 0× -678.77 0% 0
20 Philips DreamStation CPAP
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 0 0 0× -1785.23 0% 0
21 Ozempic (semaglutide)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 — — — — —
22 Wegovy (semaglutide)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 0 0× -413.7 0% 0
23 Humira (adalimumab)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 0 0× -129.03 0% 0
24 Eliquis (apixaban)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 — — — — —
25 Ford F-150 Lightning (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa
 BASELINE 0 — — — — —

Sources: CPSC SaferProducts · openFDA (drug & device adverse events) · NHTSA complaints.

Track record — the credibility flywheel

Every flagged entity is cross-checked daily against real CPSC / FDA / NHTSA recall feeds. When a flagged product is later recalled, we publish the lead time.

  • Kia EV6 (2023) — flagged 2026-07-02 (score 56), recalled 2026-07-02 → 0 days lead. notice

Get alerted before the recall

Free weekly digest of the top rising-risk products. Retailers, insurers and class-action firms — see the paid feed/API/webhook tiers.