Cassandra · Pre-Recall Predictor

Recall Risk Radar

Products, vehicles, drugs and devices showing sharply rising complaint velocity — a leading indicator of recall risk, often weeks before any official action. Built on public CPSC, openFDA and NHTSA complaint data.

25entities tracked
0elevated risk
0confirmed predictions
—avg lead time
Get the feed / API → JSON
What this is — and isn't. Cassandra is a risk-triage signal computed from the velocity and acceleration of public complaint reports. It does not assert any product is defective, and a high score is not an official recall. It means complaint volume is rising fast — here is the data and the sources so you can decide. Always verify on the official agency notice.

How good is the signal? (We tell you, honestly.)

We backtested complaint-velocity against official recalls. Here is exactly how calibrated it is — including how often it's wrong. Sold as risk-triage, never as a prediction.

2.2×NHTSA: an ELEVATED flag's lift over baseline likelihood of preceding a recall
~95dmedian lead time when a flag does precede a recall
30–37%precision: share of ELEVATED flags later recalled
63–70%false-positive rate: flags that do NOT recall
Read this before you act on a flag. Most ELEVATED flags do not end in a recall — that is expected and disclosed. The value is triage: a flagged item is ~2.2× more worth your reviewer's time than a random one, ~3 months before the official notice. Use it to prioritise QA / underwriting / stock decisions — not to declare a product defective. openFDA device/drug velocity is shown as a corroborating early-warning signal but is not independently backtested here.

Top rising recall-risk signals

Ranked by complaint-velocity risk score. Last computed: 2026-06-21 12:41 UTC.

#EntityBandRiskVel /wkvs baseAccel /wkSevere30d
1 Toyota RAV4 (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ UNKNOWN OR OTHER (15%)
 WATCH 58 1.63 2.1× 1.17 22% 7
2 Chevrolet Blazer EV (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ PARKING BRAKE (60%)
 WATCH 58 1.17 1.87× 0.93 17% 5
3 Tesla Cybertruck (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (18%)
 WATCH 57 1.63 1.91× 0.93 30% 7
4 Tesla Model 3 (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ FORWARD COLLISION AVOIDANCE (31%)
 LOW 27 1.17 1.5× 0 20% 5
5 Ford Mustang Mach-E (2022)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (67%)
 LOW 25 0.93 1.71× -0.23 0% 4
6 Jeep Grand Cherokee (2022)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (36%)
 LOW 24 3.5 1.36× 0.93 4% 15
7 Tesla Model Y (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ FORWARD COLLISION AVOIDANCE (18%)
 LOW 23 4.43 1.19× 1.4 25% 19
8 Toyota RAV4 (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (25%)
 LOW 20 1.4 1.2× -0.23 23% 6
9 Honda Prologue (2024)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ STEERING (27%)
 LOW 18 12.37 1.3× -7.7 0% 53
10 Kia EV6 (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ ELECTRICAL SYSTEM (100%)
 BASELINE 14 0.93 1.09× 0.7 0% 4
11 Beta Bionics iLet
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 13 211.87 0.17× -903 29% 908
12 Honda CR-V (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ STEERING (55%)
 BASELINE 12 2.57 1.03× -0.47 0% 11
13 Medtronic MiniMed 780G
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 12 843.5 1.01× 472.5 25% 3,615
14 Tandem t:slim X2 Pump
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 5 819.23 0.23× -2843.63 10% 3,511
15 Ford Mustang Mach-E (2021)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
↑ FORWARD COLLISION AVOIDANCE (25%)
 BASELINE 4 0.93 1× 0.47 0% 4
16 Dexcom G7 CGM
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 1 717.97 0.21× -2777.37 3% 3,077
17 Ford F-350 Crew Cab (2021)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
 BASELINE 0 0 0× -0.93 0% 0
18 Chevrolet Bolt EV (2022)
vehicle · nhtsa · backtested
 BASELINE 0 0 0× 0 0% 0
19 Philips DreamStation CPAP
device · fda_device
 BASELINE 0 299.83 0.61× -637.23 0% 1,285
20 Ozempic (semaglutide)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 0 0× 0 0% 0
21 Wegovy (semaglutide)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 0 0× 0 0% 0
22 Mounjaro (tirzepatide)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 0 0× 0 0% 0
23 Humira (adalimumab)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 0 0× 0 0% 0
24 Eliquis (apixaban)
drug · fda_drug
 BASELINE 0 0 0× 0 0% 0
25 Ford F-150 Lightning (2023)
vehicle · nhtsa
 BASELINE 0 — — — — —

Sources: CPSC SaferProducts · openFDA (drug & device adverse events) · NHTSA complaints.

Track record — the credibility flywheel

Every flagged entity is cross-checked daily against real CPSC / FDA / NHTSA recall feeds. When a flagged product is later recalled, we publish the lead time.

  • No confirmed predictions yet. Cassandra started tracking recently — the published hit-rate proves out over the coming weeks as flagged entities are cross-checked against real CPSC/FDA/NHTSA recall feeds. Methodology is live and auditable now.

Get alerted before the recall

Free weekly digest of the top rising-risk products. Retailers, insurers and class-action firms — see the paid feed/API/webhook tiers.