{ "generated": "2026-09-19T07:21:50.109Z", "entities": 25, "scored": 23, "failed": 2, "ranked": [ { "id": "veh-tesla-model3-2023", "label": "Tesla Model 3 (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 27, "band": "LOW", "metrics": { "total": 424, "recent30": 6, "prior30": 4, "recentVelPerWeek": 1.4, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.93, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1.32, "accelerationPerWeek": 0.47, "velocityRatio": 1.06, "severeShare": 0.4, "topComponent": "FORWARD COLLISION AVOIDANCE", "topComponentCount": 3, "componentConcentration": 0.43 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-toyota-rav4-2023", "label": "Toyota RAV4 (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 19, "band": "LOW", "metrics": { "total": 153, "recent30": 2, "prior30": 3, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.47, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.7, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1.01, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.23, "velocityRatio": 0.46, "severeShare": 0.4, "topComponent": "STEERING", "topComponentCount": 2, "componentConcentration": 0.4 }, "proven": 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"nhtsa", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "note": "source unavailable" } }, { "id": "dev-philips-cpap", "label": "Philips DreamStation CPAP", "category": "device", "source": "fda_device", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 26392, "recent30": 125, "prior30": 3521, "recentVelPerWeek": 29.17, "priorVelPerWeek": 821.57, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1730.48, "accelerationPerWeek": -792.4, "velocityRatio": 0.02, "severeShare": 0.0004735969689793985, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-ozempic", "label": "Ozempic (semaglutide)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 8206, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 0, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 0, "baselineVelPerWeek": 146.3, "accelerationPerWeek": 0, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-wegovy", "label": "Wegovy (semaglutide)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 6114, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 0, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 0, "baselineVelPerWeek": 192.89, "accelerationPerWeek": 0, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-mounjaro", "label": "Mounjaro (tirzepatide)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 4507, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 0, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 0, "baselineVelPerWeek": 169.71, "accelerationPerWeek": 0, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-humira", "label": "Humira (adalimumab)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 1553, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 0, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 0, "baselineVelPerWeek": 64.94, "accelerationPerWeek": 0, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-eliquis", "label": "Eliquis (apixaban)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 3180, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 0, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 0, "baselineVelPerWeek": 130.36, "accelerationPerWeek": 0, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "ford-f-150-lightning-2023", "label": "Ford F-150 Lightning (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "note": "source unavailable" } } ], "calibration": { "nhtsa": { "proven": true, "liftVsBase": 2.2, "medianLeadDays": 95, "precision": { "low": 0.3, "high": 0.37 }, "falsePositiveRate": { "low": 0.63, "high": 0.7 }, "note": "Validated on NHTSA vehicle complaints vs recallsByVehicle. Treat ELEVATED as 'pull this forward in your QA/underwriting queue', not 'this will be recalled'." }, "fda_device": { "proven": false, "note": "openFDA device adverse-event velocity. Directionally similar mechanism (rising MDR volume precedes Class I/II device recalls) but NOT independently backtested here. Surfaced as a corroborating early-warning signal only." }, "fda_drug": { "proven": false, "note": "openFDA drug adverse-event (FAERS) velocity. Reporting is noisy and stimulated by litigation/press; use as context, not a standalone trigger." }, "cpsc": { "proven": false, "note": "CPSC complaint coverage is sparser than NHTSA; used for fresh-recall context and keyword discovery rather than per-entity velocity scoring." } }, "disclaimer": "Calibration (NHTSA, backtested): an ELEVATED complaint-velocity flag is ~2.2x more likely than baseline to precede an official recall, with ~95-day median lead time and ~30-37% precision (so ~63-70% of flags do NOT recall). This is a risk-triage signal, not a prediction that a product is defective or will be recalled." }