{ "generated": "2026-11-03T07:21:52.255Z", "entities": 25, "scored": 21, "failed": 4, "ranked": [ { "id": "veh-toyota-rav4-2023", "label": "Toyota RAV4 (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 63, "band": "WATCH", "metrics": { "total": 164, "recent30": 8, "prior30": 2, "recentVelPerWeek": 1.87, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.47, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.54, "accelerationPerWeek": 1.4, "velocityRatio": 3.43, "severeShare": 0.1, "topComponent": "UNKNOWN OR OTHER", "topComponentCount": 3, "componentConcentration": 0.27 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-tesla-cybertruck-2024", "label": "Tesla Cybertruck (2024)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 52, "band": "WATCH", "metrics": { "total": 178, "recent30": 6, "prior30": 3, "recentVelPerWeek": 1.4, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.7, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.7, "accelerationPerWeek": 0.7, "velocityRatio": 2, "severeShare": 0.222, "topComponent": "STRUCTURE", "topComponentCount": 2, "componentConcentration": 0.25 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-honda-crv-2023", "label": "Honda CR-V (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 16, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 517, "recent30": 4, "prior30": 5, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.93, "priorVelPerWeek": 1.17, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1.09, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.23, "velocityRatio": 0.86, "severeShare": 0.222, "topComponent": "SERVICE BRAKES", "topComponentCount": 3, "componentConcentration": 0.38 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-kia-ev6-2023", "label": "Kia EV6 (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 16, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 138, "recent30": 3, "prior30": 2, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.7, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.47, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.54, "accelerationPerWeek": 0.23, "velocityRatio": 1.29, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": "ELECTRICAL SYSTEM", "topComponentCount": 3, "componentConcentration": 0.75 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-tesla-model3-2023", "label": "Tesla Model 3 (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 12, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 429, "recent30": 3, "prior30": 6, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.7, "priorVelPerWeek": 1.4, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.93, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.7, "velocityRatio": 0.75, "severeShare": 0.222, "topComponent": "SUSPENSION", "topComponentCount": 1, "componentConcentration": 0.17 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-jeep-grandc-2022", "label": "Jeep Grand Cherokee (2022)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 12, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 377, "recent30": 5, "prior30": 6, "recentVelPerWeek": 1.17, "priorVelPerWeek": 1.4, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1.32, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.23, "velocityRatio": 0.88, "severeShare": 0.091, "topComponent": "ELECTRICAL SYSTEM", "topComponentCount": 4, "componentConcentration": 0.4 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-chevy-blazerev-2024", "label": "Chevrolet Blazer EV (2024)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 11, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 78, "recent30": 2, "prior30": 0, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.47, "priorVelPerWeek": 0, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.39, "accelerationPerWeek": 0.47, "velocityRatio": 1.2, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": "SERVICE BRAKES", "topComponentCount": 1, "componentConcentration": 0.33 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-tesla-modely-2023", "label": "Tesla Model Y (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 10, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 1194, "recent30": 10, "prior30": 13, "recentVelPerWeek": 2.33, "priorVelPerWeek": 3.03, "baselineVelPerWeek": 3.42, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.7, "velocityRatio": 0.68, "severeShare": 0.13, "topComponent": "ELECTRICAL SYSTEM", "topComponentCount": 4, "componentConcentration": 0.22 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "dev-ilet", "label": "Beta Bionics iLet", "category": "device", "source": "fda_device", "score": 10, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 18480, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 4796, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 1119.07, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1123.5, "accelerationPerWeek": -1119.07, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0.22772474144789182, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "veh-ford-mache-2021", "label": "Ford Mustang Mach-E (2021)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 9, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 352, "recent30": 2, "prior30": 2, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.47, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.47, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.39, "accelerationPerWeek": 0, "velocityRatio": 1.2, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": "FORWARD COLLISION AVOIDANCE", "topComponentCount": 2, "componentConcentration": 1 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-toyota-rav4-2024", "label": "Toyota RAV4 (2024)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 4, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 176, "recent30": 2, "prior30": 5, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.47, "priorVelPerWeek": 1.17, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.93, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.7, "velocityRatio": 0.5, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": "VISIBILITY", "topComponentCount": 1, "componentConcentration": 0.5 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "dev-tslim-x2", "label": "Tandem t:slim X2 Pump", "category": "device", "source": "fda_device", "score": 4, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 61414, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 13223, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 3085.37, "baselineVelPerWeek": 3680.37, "accelerationPerWeek": -3085.37, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0.09716306937125532, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "veh-ford-mache-2022", "label": "Ford Mustang Mach-E (2022)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 2, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 139, "recent30": 1, "prior30": 2, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.23, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.47, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.31, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.23, "velocityRatio": 0.75, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": "ELECTRICAL SYSTEM", "topComponentCount": 1, "componentConcentration": 0.5 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "dev-dexcom-g7", "label": "Dexcom G7 CGM", "category": "device", "source": "fda_device", "score": 1, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 71942, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 14957, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 3489.97, "baselineVelPerWeek": 4408.13, "accelerationPerWeek": -3489.97, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0.03153643997179668, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "veh-ford-f350cc-2021", "label": "Ford F-350 Crew Cab (2021)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 91, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 2, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.47, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.39, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.47, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-chevy-bolt-2022", "label": "Chevrolet Bolt EV (2022)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 59, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 0, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 0, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.08, "accelerationPerWeek": 0, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-honda-prologue-2024", "label": "Honda Prologue (2024)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "note": "source unavailable" } }, { "id": "dev-minimed780", "label": "Medtronic MiniMed 780G", "category": "device", "source": "fda_device", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 18084, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 3686, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 860.07, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1110.82, "accelerationPerWeek": -860.07, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "dev-philips-cpap", "label": "Philips DreamStation CPAP", "category": "device", "source": "fda_device", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 19901, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 371, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 86.57, "baselineVelPerWeek": 835.26, "accelerationPerWeek": -86.57, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-ozempic", "label": "Ozempic (semaglutide)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 6012, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 1097, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 255.97, "baselineVelPerWeek": 319.9, "accelerationPerWeek": -255.97, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-wegovy", "label": "Wegovy (semaglutide)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 6634, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 1398, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 326.2, "baselineVelPerWeek": 350.16, "accelerationPerWeek": -326.2, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-mounjaro", "label": "Mounjaro (tirzepatide)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 7845, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 1572, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 366.8, "baselineVelPerWeek": 457.33, "accelerationPerWeek": -366.8, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-humira", "label": "Humira (adalimumab)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "note": "source unavailable" } }, { "id": "drg-eliquis", "label": "Eliquis (apixaban)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "note": "source unavailable" } }, { "id": "ford-f-150-lightning-2023", "label": "Ford F-150 Lightning (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "note": "source unavailable" } } ], "calibration": { "nhtsa": { "proven": true, "liftVsBase": 2.2, "medianLeadDays": 95, "precision": { "low": 0.3, "high": 0.37 }, "falsePositiveRate": { "low": 0.63, "high": 0.7 }, "note": "Validated on NHTSA vehicle complaints vs recallsByVehicle. Treat ELEVATED as 'pull this forward in your QA/underwriting queue', not 'this will be recalled'." }, "fda_device": { "proven": false, "note": "openFDA device adverse-event velocity. Directionally similar mechanism (rising MDR volume precedes Class I/II device recalls) but NOT independently backtested here. Surfaced as a corroborating early-warning signal only." }, "fda_drug": { "proven": false, "note": "openFDA drug adverse-event (FAERS) velocity. Reporting is noisy and stimulated by litigation/press; use as context, not a standalone trigger." }, "cpsc": { "proven": false, "note": "CPSC complaint coverage is sparser than NHTSA; used for fresh-recall context and keyword discovery rather than per-entity velocity scoring." } }, "disclaimer": "Calibration (NHTSA, backtested): an ELEVATED complaint-velocity flag is ~2.2x more likely than baseline to precede an official recall, with ~95-day median lead time and ~30-37% precision (so ~63-70% of flags do NOT recall). This is a risk-triage signal, not a prediction that a product is defective or will be recalled." }