{ "generated": "2026-08-05T07:22:31.708Z", "entities": 25, "scored": 21, "failed": 4, "ranked": [ { "id": "veh-chevy-bolt-2022", "label": "Chevrolet Bolt EV (2022)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 34, "band": "LOW", "metrics": { "total": 59, "recent30": 1, "prior30": 1, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.23, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.23, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.08, "accelerationPerWeek": 0, "velocityRatio": 3, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": "ELECTRICAL SYSTEM", "topComponentCount": 1, "componentConcentration": 1 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-chevy-blazerev-2024", "label": "Chevrolet Blazer EV (2024)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 32, "band": "LOW", "metrics": { "total": 76, "recent30": 3, "prior30": 5, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.7, "priorVelPerWeek": 1.17, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.47, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.47, "velocityRatio": 1.5, "severeShare": 0.375, "topComponent": "FORWARD COLLISION AVOIDANCE", "topComponentCount": 2, "componentConcentration": 0.4 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-kia-ev6-2023", "label": "Kia EV6 (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 29, "band": "LOW", "metrics": { "total": 132, "recent30": 4, "prior30": 3, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.93, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.7, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.54, "accelerationPerWeek": 0.23, "velocityRatio": 1.71, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": "ELECTRICAL SYSTEM", "topComponentCount": 4, "componentConcentration": 0.57 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-tesla-model3-2023", "label": "Tesla Model 3 (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 18, "band": "LOW", "metrics": { "total": 412, "recent30": 1, "prior30": 11, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.23, "priorVelPerWeek": 2.57, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1.4, "accelerationPerWeek": -2.33, "velocityRatio": 0.17, "severeShare": 0.417, "topComponent": "STRUCTURE", "topComponentCount": 1, "componentConcentration": 1 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-ford-mache-2022", "label": "Ford Mustang Mach-E (2022)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 17, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 127, "recent30": 2, "prior30": 1, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.47, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.23, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.86, "accelerationPerWeek": 0.23, "velocityRatio": 0.55, "severeShare": 0.667, "topComponent": "ELECTRICAL SYSTEM", "topComponentCount": 1, "componentConcentration": 0.17 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-tesla-modely-2023", "label": "Tesla Model Y (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 17, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 1106, "recent30": 17, "prior30": 17, "recentVelPerWeek": 3.97, "priorVelPerWeek": 3.97, "baselineVelPerWeek": 3.34, "accelerationPerWeek": 0, "velocityRatio": 1.19, "severeShare": 0.176, "topComponent": "SUSPENSION", "topComponentCount": 5, "componentConcentration": 0.19 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-tesla-cybertruck-2024", "label": "Tesla Cybertruck (2024)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 16, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 168, "recent30": 4, "prior30": 3, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.93, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.7, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1.09, "accelerationPerWeek": 0.23, "velocityRatio": 0.86, "severeShare": 0.286, "topComponent": "POWER TRAIN", "topComponentCount": 1, "componentConcentration": 0.17 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "drg-mounjaro", "label": "Mounjaro (tirzepatide)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 16, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 7719, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 1566, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 365.4, "baselineVelPerWeek": 428.87, "accelerationPerWeek": -365.4, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0.5350765306122449, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "veh-honda-crv-2023", "label": "Honda CR-V (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 14, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 506, "recent30": 4, "prior30": 6, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.93, "priorVelPerWeek": 1.4, "baselineVelPerWeek": 2.49, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.47, "velocityRatio": 0.38, "severeShare": 0.1, "topComponent": "STEERING", "topComponentCount": 3, "componentConcentration": 0.6 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-toyota-rav4-2023", "label": "Toyota RAV4 (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 10, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 145, "recent30": 3, "prior30": 4, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.7, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.93, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1.01, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.23, "velocityRatio": 0.69, "severeShare": 0.143, "topComponent": "BACK OVER PREVENTION", "topComponentCount": 2, "componentConcentration": 0.33 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-toyota-rav4-2024", "label": "Toyota RAV4 (2024)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 10, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 165, "recent30": 3, "prior30": 5, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.7, "priorVelPerWeek": 1.17, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1.56, "accelerationPerWeek": -0.47, "velocityRatio": 0.45, "severeShare": 0.125, "topComponent": "ELECTRICAL SYSTEM", "topComponentCount": 1, "componentConcentration": 0.33 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "dev-ilet", "label": "Beta Bionics iLet", "category": "device", "source": "fda_device", "score": 10, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 17360, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 3399, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 793.1, "baselineVelPerWeek": 917.86, "accelerationPerWeek": -793.1, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0.22752562225475842, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "veh-jeep-grandc-2022", "label": "Jeep Grand Cherokee (2022)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 6, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 363, "recent30": 8, "prior30": 8, "recentVelPerWeek": 1.87, "priorVelPerWeek": 1.87, "baselineVelPerWeek": 2.26, "accelerationPerWeek": 0, "velocityRatio": 0.83, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": "ELECTRICAL SYSTEM", "topComponentCount": 6, "componentConcentration": 0.32 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-honda-prologue-2024", "label": "Honda Prologue (2024)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 6, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 802, "recent30": 25, "prior30": 33, "recentVelPerWeek": 5.83, "priorVelPerWeek": 7.7, "baselineVelPerWeek": 13.22, "accelerationPerWeek": -1.87, "velocityRatio": 0.44, "severeShare": 0.017, "topComponent": "STEERING", "topComponentCount": 12, "componentConcentration": 0.27 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "dev-tslim-x2", "label": "Tandem t:slim X2 Pump", "category": "device", "source": "fda_device", "score": 5, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 57614, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 12051, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 2811.9, "baselineVelPerWeek": 3281.13, "accelerationPerWeek": -2811.9, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0.10265339966832504, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "veh-ford-f350cc-2021", "label": "Ford F-350 Crew Cab (2021)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 3, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 92, "recent30": 2, "prior30": 2, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.47, "priorVelPerWeek": 0.47, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.47, "accelerationPerWeek": 0, "velocityRatio": 1, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": "FUEL/PROPULSION SYSTEM", "topComponentCount": 1, "componentConcentration": 0.33 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "veh-ford-mache-2021", "label": "Ford Mustang Mach-E (2021)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 2, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 336, "recent30": 2, "prior30": 8, "recentVelPerWeek": 0.47, "priorVelPerWeek": 1.87, "baselineVelPerWeek": 0.86, "accelerationPerWeek": -1.4, "velocityRatio": 0.55, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": "ELECTRICAL SYSTEM", "topComponentCount": 1, "componentConcentration": 0.2 }, "proven": true }, { "id": "dev-dexcom-g7", "label": "Dexcom G7 CGM", "category": "device", "source": "fda_device", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "note": "source unavailable" } }, { "id": "dev-minimed780", "label": "Medtronic MiniMed 780G", "category": "device", "source": "fda_device", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 16133, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 2909, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 678.77, "baselineVelPerWeek": 996.8, "accelerationPerWeek": -678.77, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "dev-philips-cpap", "label": "Philips DreamStation CPAP", "category": "device", "source": "fda_device", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 16546, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 7651, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 1785.23, "baselineVelPerWeek": 1145.28, "accelerationPerWeek": -1785.23, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0.0005228074761469089, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-ozempic", "label": "Ozempic (semaglutide)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "note": "source unavailable" } }, { "id": "drg-wegovy", "label": "Wegovy (semaglutide)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 7341, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 1773, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 413.7, "baselineVelPerWeek": 518.93, "accelerationPerWeek": -413.7, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-humira", "label": "Humira (adalimumab)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "total": 2517, "recent30": 0, "prior30": 553, "recentVelPerWeek": 0, "priorVelPerWeek": 129.03, "baselineVelPerWeek": 144.43, "accelerationPerWeek": -129.03, "velocityRatio": 0, "severeShare": 0, "topComponent": null, "topComponentCount": 0, "componentConcentration": 0 }, "proven": false }, { "id": "drg-eliquis", "label": "Eliquis (apixaban)", "category": "drug", "source": "fda_drug", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "note": "source unavailable" } }, { "id": "ford-f-150-lightning-2023", "label": "Ford F-150 Lightning (2023)", "category": "vehicle", "source": "nhtsa", "score": 0, "band": "BASELINE", "metrics": { "note": "source unavailable" } } ], "calibration": { "nhtsa": { "proven": true, "liftVsBase": 2.2, "medianLeadDays": 95, "precision": { "low": 0.3, "high": 0.37 }, "falsePositiveRate": { "low": 0.63, "high": 0.7 }, "note": "Validated on NHTSA vehicle complaints vs recallsByVehicle. Treat ELEVATED as 'pull this forward in your QA/underwriting queue', not 'this will be recalled'." }, "fda_device": { "proven": false, "note": "openFDA device adverse-event velocity. Directionally similar mechanism (rising MDR volume precedes Class I/II device recalls) but NOT independently backtested here. Surfaced as a corroborating early-warning signal only." }, "fda_drug": { "proven": false, "note": "openFDA drug adverse-event (FAERS) velocity. Reporting is noisy and stimulated by litigation/press; use as context, not a standalone trigger." }, "cpsc": { "proven": false, "note": "CPSC complaint coverage is sparser than NHTSA; used for fresh-recall context and keyword discovery rather than per-entity velocity scoring." } }, "disclaimer": "Calibration (NHTSA, backtested): an ELEVATED complaint-velocity flag is ~2.2x more likely than baseline to precede an official recall, with ~95-day median lead time and ~30-37% precision (so ~63-70% of flags do NOT recall). This is a risk-triage signal, not a prediction that a product is defective or will be recalled." }